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In Spain, if the infection expanded and the majority of trees became infected and died, the costs could run to €17 billion over the next 50 years. A similar scenario in Italy would amount to over five billion, while in Greece, the losses would be under two billion. If the rate of infection is slowed down, or resistant varieties are planted instead, then these costs would be significantly reduced. However, the authors believe, whatever happens, there will likely be a knock-on impact on consumers. "The expected effect could be that there would be a shortage of supply," said lead author Kevin Schneider from Wageningen University in the Netherlands. "And I would expect that if prices go up, consumers will be worse off." The authors say that while their analysis looks at economics, there are also potentially large touristic and cultural losses caused by the bacterium that can't be ignored. "You really hear devastating stories of infected orchards that were inherited over generations," said Dr Schneider. "It's the same orchard that their grandparents were once working on. So how do you put an economic number on the loss of something like this. The cultural heritage value would be far larger than we could compute." There are a growing number of scientific initiatives to try and take the fight to the bacterium, including using insect repelling clays, vegetative barriers and genetic analysis to determine why some plants are more susceptible to the infection than others. Ultimately, the researchers believe that beating the pathogen will require trees that are resistant to the disease. "Seeking resistant cultivars or immune species is one of the most promising, and environmentally sustainable, long-term control strategies to which the European scientific community is devoting relevant research efforts," said Dr Saponari, "Sustainable strategies to reduce the population of the insects is the other pillar for the control of the vector-borne disease, in this regard, mechanical intervention to remove weeds in spring is one of the most efficacious applications to reduce the populations of the insect, indeed several other strategies are also being studied to implement the control of the insects," she added. While two varieties of olive tree have been found to have some resistance, the authors are calling for research in this area to be significantly boosted.
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Text Practice - Time 660 - English

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