words per minute
4
SarcasmXP
00:00
Speed
The peak stage of COVID19 in India has been delayed by the eightweek lockdown along with strengthened public health measures, and it may now arrive around midNovember when a paucity of isolation and ICU beds and ventilators can arise, a study says. Delayed by lockdown The study, conducted by researchers from an Operations Research Group constituted
by the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), said the lockdown shifted the peak by an estimated 34 days to 76 days and helped bring down the number of infections by between 69% and 97%, allowing time to shore up resources and health infrastructure. In a scenario of intensified public health measures with 60% effectiveness after the lockdown, the demand for
treatment facilities can be met until the first week of November. Thereafter, isolation beds could be inadequate for 5.4 months, ICU beds for 4.6 months and ventilators for 3.9 months, projections by the researchers showed. However, this shortfall is estimated to be 83% less than what it could have been without the lockdown and public health measures. With sustained measures to increase the infrastructure and the varying pace of the epidemic in different regions, the impact of the unmet need
can be reduced. If the coverage of healthcare measures can be increased to 80%, the epidemic can be mitigated. According to the model based analysis for the pandemic in India, with the additional capacity built for testing, treating and isolating patients during the lockdown, the number of cases at the peak could come down by 70% and the cumulative cases may drop by nearly 27%.As for mortality, approximately 60% deaths were prevented and one third of this mortality prevention is attributed to the reduction in the unmet need for critical care as a result of the intervention,the analysis showed.